06.10.2020, 10:04
Die Planungsszenarien des us-amerikanischen CDC (Centers for Disease Control) vom 20. Mai 2020 mit Aktualisierung vom 10. September 2020.
[N.B. Dis-ease = lack of ease or comfort/ease=to free from obstruction or difficulty; untangle, simplify]
"CDC and the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Responseexternal icon (ASPR) have developed five COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios that are designed to help inform decisions by public health officials who use mathematical modeling, and by mathematical modelers throughout the federal government. Models developed using the data provided in the planning scenario tables can help evaluate the potential effects of different community mitigation strategies (e.g., social distancing). The planning scenarios may also be useful to hospital administrators in assessing resource needs and can be used in conjunction with the COVID-19Surge Tool."
Es lohnt sich u. s. Zahlen auf sich wirken zu lassen! Hierbei handelt es sich um die STERBLICHKEIT, die zu erwarten ist anhand von 5 verschiedenen Modellen. Passend dazu wurde wohl am 5.10.20 in ARD extra eine Dokumentation ausgestrahlt. Tenor dieser Sendung war, daß es zu keinem Zeitpunkt der P(l)andemie eine Übersterblichkeit gab.
Table 1. Parameter Values that vary among the five COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios. The scenarios are intended to advance public health preparedness and planning. They are not predictions or estimates of the expected impact of COVID-19. The parameter values in each scenario will be updated and augmented over time, as we learn more about the epidemiology of COVID-19. Additional parameter values might be added in the future (e.g., population density, household transmission, and/or race and ethnicity).
Infection Fatality Ratio† (Angaben in PROZENT!)
Szenario 1+2
0-19 years: 0.00002
20-49 years: 0.00007
50-69 years: 0.0025
70+ years: 0.028
Szenario 3+4
0-19 years: 0.0001
20-49 years: 0.0003
50-69 years: 0.010
70+ years: 0.093
Szenario 5
0-19 years: 0.00003
20-49 years: 0.0002
50-69 years: 0.005
70+ years: 0.054
† These estimates are based on age-specific estimates of infection fatality ratios from Hauser, A., Counotte, M.J., Margossian, C.C., Konstantinoudis, G., Low, N., Althaus, C.L. and Riou, J., 2020. Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 mortality during the early stages of an epidemic: a modeling study in Hubei, China, and six regions in Europe. PLoS medicine, 17(7), p.e1003189. Hauser et al. produced estimates of IFR for 10-year age bands from 0 to 80+ year old for 6 regions in Europe. Estimates exclude infection fatality ratios from Hubei, China, because we assumed infection and case ascertainment from the 6 European regions are more likely to reflect ascertainment in the U.S. To obtain the best estimate values, the point estimates of IFR by age were averaged to broader age groups for each of the 6 European regions using weights based on the age distribution of reported cases from COVID-19 Case Surveillance Public Use Data (https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/C.../vbim-akqf). The estimates for persons ≥70 years old presented here do not include persons ≥80 years old as IFR estimates from Hauser et al., assumed that 100% of infections among persons ≥80 years old were reported. The consolidated age estimates were then averaged across the 6 European regions. The lower bound estimate is the lowest, non-zero point estimate across the six regions, while the upper bound is the highest point estimate across the six regions.
Quelle: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
PS: Mit der Offenbarung 13:3 dürften wir durch sein. Der Vorhang für 13:4 hebt sich. So behaupten zumindest 'böse' Zungen.
Und sie beteten den Drachen an, der dem Tier Vollmacht gegeben hatte, und sie beteten das Tier an und sprachen: Wer ist dem Tier gleich? Wer vermag mit ihm zu kämpfen? Offbg. 13:4
PPS: Wer im übrigen ein bisschen im Schmutz des RKI wühlt, wird im Endeffekt, die gleichen Statements und Zahlen finden.
[N.B. Dis-ease = lack of ease or comfort/ease=to free from obstruction or difficulty; untangle, simplify]
"CDC and the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Responseexternal icon (ASPR) have developed five COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios that are designed to help inform decisions by public health officials who use mathematical modeling, and by mathematical modelers throughout the federal government. Models developed using the data provided in the planning scenario tables can help evaluate the potential effects of different community mitigation strategies (e.g., social distancing). The planning scenarios may also be useful to hospital administrators in assessing resource needs and can be used in conjunction with the COVID-19Surge Tool."
Es lohnt sich u. s. Zahlen auf sich wirken zu lassen! Hierbei handelt es sich um die STERBLICHKEIT, die zu erwarten ist anhand von 5 verschiedenen Modellen. Passend dazu wurde wohl am 5.10.20 in ARD extra eine Dokumentation ausgestrahlt. Tenor dieser Sendung war, daß es zu keinem Zeitpunkt der P(l)andemie eine Übersterblichkeit gab.
Table 1. Parameter Values that vary among the five COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios. The scenarios are intended to advance public health preparedness and planning. They are not predictions or estimates of the expected impact of COVID-19. The parameter values in each scenario will be updated and augmented over time, as we learn more about the epidemiology of COVID-19. Additional parameter values might be added in the future (e.g., population density, household transmission, and/or race and ethnicity).
Infection Fatality Ratio† (Angaben in PROZENT!)
Szenario 1+2
0-19 years: 0.00002
20-49 years: 0.00007
50-69 years: 0.0025
70+ years: 0.028
Szenario 3+4
0-19 years: 0.0001
20-49 years: 0.0003
50-69 years: 0.010
70+ years: 0.093
Szenario 5
0-19 years: 0.00003
20-49 years: 0.0002
50-69 years: 0.005
70+ years: 0.054
† These estimates are based on age-specific estimates of infection fatality ratios from Hauser, A., Counotte, M.J., Margossian, C.C., Konstantinoudis, G., Low, N., Althaus, C.L. and Riou, J., 2020. Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 mortality during the early stages of an epidemic: a modeling study in Hubei, China, and six regions in Europe. PLoS medicine, 17(7), p.e1003189. Hauser et al. produced estimates of IFR for 10-year age bands from 0 to 80+ year old for 6 regions in Europe. Estimates exclude infection fatality ratios from Hubei, China, because we assumed infection and case ascertainment from the 6 European regions are more likely to reflect ascertainment in the U.S. To obtain the best estimate values, the point estimates of IFR by age were averaged to broader age groups for each of the 6 European regions using weights based on the age distribution of reported cases from COVID-19 Case Surveillance Public Use Data (https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/C.../vbim-akqf). The estimates for persons ≥70 years old presented here do not include persons ≥80 years old as IFR estimates from Hauser et al., assumed that 100% of infections among persons ≥80 years old were reported. The consolidated age estimates were then averaged across the 6 European regions. The lower bound estimate is the lowest, non-zero point estimate across the six regions, while the upper bound is the highest point estimate across the six regions.
Quelle: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
PS: Mit der Offenbarung 13:3 dürften wir durch sein. Der Vorhang für 13:4 hebt sich. So behaupten zumindest 'böse' Zungen.
Und sie beteten den Drachen an, der dem Tier Vollmacht gegeben hatte, und sie beteten das Tier an und sprachen: Wer ist dem Tier gleich? Wer vermag mit ihm zu kämpfen? Offbg. 13:4
PPS: Wer im übrigen ein bisschen im Schmutz des RKI wühlt, wird im Endeffekt, die gleichen Statements und Zahlen finden.
Joh. 15:19
If ye were of the world, the world would love his own; but because ye are not of the world, but I have chosen you out of the world,
therefore the world hateth you.
If ye were of the world, the world would love his own; but because ye are not of the world, but I have chosen you out of the world,
therefore the world hateth you.